Independent equity research
Is Agricultural Bank of China (601288) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Agricultural Bank of China — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
¥8.20
To fair value
+18%
By · report dated 2026-09-01 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
ABC's NIM bottomed at 1.28% in H1 2026 with deposit costs down 21bp and the high-rate three-year vintage still repricing, so 10.5% NII growth is a durable inflection and ROTCE settles near 9.3%, not the 8.5% the 0.86x P/TBV embeds; a NIM below 1.24% or CET1 below 10.5% falsifies it
How we value it
We value Agricultural Bank of China using Excess-return on tangible book at a 9.40% CAPM cost of equity; DDM tie-out; justified P/TBV. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Agricultural Bank of China report
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