Independent equity research
Is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
¥10.30
To fair value
+27%
By · report dated 2026-08-31 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
ICBC trades at 0.73x tangible book, pricing a sustainable ROTCE of 7.4% against a delivered 9.4%; the gap closes as the payout normalises from 31% toward the ~59% its growth actually requires. Wrong if ROA falls below 0.62% and the capital adequacy ratio slides under 18%
How we value it
We value Industrial and Commercial Bank of China using Justified P/TBV from ROTCE vs cost of equity; excess-return model; DDM cross-check. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Industrial and Commercial Bank of China report
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