Independent equity research
Is Bank of China (601988) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Bank of China — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
¥7.40
To fair value
+13%
By · report dated 2026-09-01 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
BOC's operating line inflected in H1 2026 — NIM +1bp, NII +10.2%, PPOP +9.8% — but the owner did not get it: impairment +18.4% and a 9.4% larger share count cut EPS 1.6% and ROE to 8.66%. Wrong if FY2027 ROE rises rather than falls, or if CET1 stops sliding without another raise
How we value it
We value Bank of China using Justified P/TBV on ROTCE vs cost of equity, two-stage excess-return and DDM, cross-checked on a peer P/TBV-vs-ROE fit. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Bank of China report
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