Independent equity research
Is SoftBank Group Corp. (9984) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
SoftBank Group Corp. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
5,290.00
To fair value
−19%
By · report dated 2026-08-25 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
SoftBank is a holding company whose NAV we mark at JPY 9,441 a share, half of it Arm. At JPY 5,087 the market applies a 46% discount, a hair inside its own thirteen-quarter mean, while the buyback that mechanically closes it is switched off. We apply 44%, giving JPY 5,290 - 4% upside. Not enough to pay for Arm's beta
How we value it
We value SoftBank Group Corp. using Sum-of-the-parts NAV marked to spot, then a 44% discount; cross-checked on P/NAV against listed holding-company peers.. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full SoftBank Group Corp. report
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