Independent equity research
Is Airbnb (ABNB) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Airbnb — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$139.00
To fair value
−18%
By · report dated 2026-08-13 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Airbnb's four-session +19% re-rating capitalised a ~$160m FY26 EBITDA guidance uplift at ~100x, leaving a price that needs ~7% perpetual growth to justify; charge the 13%-of-revenue SBC and the honest multiple is 33x EV/EBITDA against a 16x peer median, on a 2.6% owner FCF yield versus a 4.7% risk-free rate
How we value it
We value Airbnb using 10-yr DCF on owner FCF (after SBC), WACC 11.1%, g 2.5%; 40% wt FY27E peer multiples. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Airbnb report
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