Independent equity research
Is Airbus SE (AIR) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Airbus SE — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
€212.00
To fair value
+6%
By · report dated 2026-08-27 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Airbus's ramp is real but not yet cash-generative: free cash flow before customer financing is guided to about EUR 4.5bn for a third straight year while revenue goes from EUR 69bn to EUR 81bn, and a hedge book rolling 1.18 to 1.22 costs roughly EUR 150m of EBIT per cent. Falsified if 2027 FCF guidance clears EUR 6bn
How we value it
We value Airbus SE using SOTP on 2026E EBIT adjusted; peer EV/EBIT and FCF-before-customer-financing DCF. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Airbus SE report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.