Independent equity research
Is Allianz SE (ALV) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Allianz SE — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
€455.00
To fair value
+3%
By · report dated 2026-08-22 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Allianz earns a 19% core RoE against an 8.5% cost of equity, but at EUR 440.80 and 2.68x book ex-OCI the market already capitalises a permanent 17.7% return, so the 7.4% total return on offer sits below our cost of equity and a normalising Q3 catastrophe load is the near-term test
How we value it
We value Allianz SE using Excess-return on BVPS ex-OCI (COE 8.5%) + justified P/BV and core-EPS cross-checks. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Allianz SE report
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