Independent equity research
Is Amadeus IT Group, S.A. (AMS) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Amadeus IT Group, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
€55.44
To fair value
+3%
By · report dated 2026-09-19 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At EUR 54.98 Amadeus already discounts our base case (organic revenue +7% in 2027 fading to 2.5%, a 40% EBITDA margin, capex at 10-10.5% of revenue) at a 9.0% WACC; we turn buyers if FY2026 FCF clears EUR 1.45bn with bookings growing again, and sellers if it misses the EUR 1.35bn guidance floor
How we value it
We value Amadeus IT Group, S.A. using FCFF DCF after capitalised development at 9.04% WACC, g 2.5%, 25/50/25 weights. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Amadeus IT Group, S.A. report
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