Independent equity research
Is Amazon (AMZN) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Amazon — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
$268.00
To fair value
+15%
Report dated 2026-06-02* · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
AWS re-accelerating (Q1'26 +28%) but surging capex (~$200B in 2026E) is sinking FCF; at ~30x 2026E EPS the price already embeds the execution. Consensus PT ~$307
How we value it
We value Amazon using FCF/DCF (9.8% prop. / 10.75% cons. WACC) + P/E. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Amazon report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus 38 other names. One subscription, cancel anytime.