Independent equity research
Is ASML Holding (ASML) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
ASML Holding — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
$1,850.00
To fair value
+5%
Report dated 2026-07-20 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Indispensable EUV monopoly re-accelerating (FY26 sales raised twice to EUR43-45B); superb business, full price at ~34x fwd. Base +6%; DCF cross-check sits below spot
How we value it
We value ASML Holding using 31x normalized 2027E EPS + FCF/DCF cross-check. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full ASML Holding report
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