Independent equity research
Is Broadcom (AVGO) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Broadcom — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce)
12-mo fair value
$280.00
To fair value
−23%
By · report dated 2026-09-04 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At USD 357 Broadcom already discounts management's FY2028 AI trajectory in full: the reverse DCF requires a terminal unlevered, SBC-burdened FCF margin of 55.2% of revenue against 37.6% achieved TTM, so the shares de-rate unless FY2028 AI revenue lands at or above USD 230bn
How we value it
We value Broadcom using Probability-weighted 5-yr FCFF DCF at 11.07% WACC, cross-checked on FY2027E EV/adj. EBITDA and segment SOTP. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Broadcom report
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