Independent equity research
Is American Express (AXP) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
American Express — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
$375.00
To fair value
+15%
Report dated 2026-07-24 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
BUY(accumulate)/$375 - Q2'26 refresh, UPGRADED from HOLD. Card-issuer financials template; ~6% beat-and-reinvest drop de-rated to ~18x/~7.7x TBV, below lender-rate excess-return ~$377 (rev guide RAISED, EPS guide HELD 3rd time, credit IMPROVING). Sep Platinum-lap=key falsifier
How we value it
We value American Express using Excess-return on TBVPS + ~18x fwd P/E. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full American Express report
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