Independent equity research
Is AutoZone (AZO) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
AutoZone — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
Fair value
$2,934.00
12-mo figure
To fair value
−8%
By · report dated 2026-10-02 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
AutoZone is worth about $2,934 a share because FY27 brings mid-single-digit EBIT growth, not a margin recovery: we expect domestic same-store sales near 2.5%, an 18.0% EBIT margin and EPS of about $165, below the $170.69 consensus. A domestic comp above 4% with SG&A leverage would prove us too low
How we value it
We value AutoZone using 7-yr DCF on FCF to the firm (after SBC), WACC 8.1%, g 2.5%. The fair value (a 12-month figure under the method then in force) is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full AutoZone report
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