Independent equity research
Is BASF SE (BAS) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
BASF SE — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
€60.00
To fair value
+16%
By · report dated 2026-09-03 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
We think BASF earns EUR 8.75bn of EBITDA mid-cycle and is worth EUR 60; the market pays 8.9 times a guided EUR 7.3bn and treats the trough as the run rate. We are wrong if the second-quarter pricing gain unwinds and CoreShift is eaten by inflation, leaving mid-cycle near EUR 7.2bn and the shares near EUR 36
How we value it
We value BASF SE using Mid-cycle sum-of-parts EV/EBITDA, cross-checked on capitalised free cash flow.. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full BASF SE report
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