Independent equity research
Is Bayer AG (BAYN) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Bayer AG — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
€48.83
To fair value
+1%
By · report dated 2026-09-03 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Bayer shares have risen 79 per cent on a collapsing litigation discount, not an operating recovery, and at EUR 49.18 the market underwrites a EUR 6.1bn residual claim against our EUR 9.0bn base, so the position only works if the 14 September approval holds and Crop Science reaches mid-20s margins
How we value it
We value Bayer AG using Sum-of-the-parts on 2026E EBITDA less an explicit litigation provision. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Bayer AG report
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