Independent equity research
Is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
€22.00
To fair value
−13%
By · report dated 2026-08-22 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At 2.4x tangible book BBVA discounts a perpetual 23.6% ROTE, above its own peak-year plan, while 54% of RWA sits in Turkiye, Mexico and South America; on a blended 11.4% cost of equity and a normalised 19% ROTE it is worth EUR 22. Wrong if Mexico's cost of risk holds below 350bp and Turkiye earns EUR 2bn
How we value it
We value Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. using Justified P/TNAV on 2027E TNAV (COE 11.4%) + excess-return cross-check. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. report
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