Independent equity research
Is Booking Holdings (BKNG) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Booking Holdings — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
$225.00
To fair value
+29%
By · report dated 2026-08-12 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Booking still earns ~71% ROIC on a 10.0% WACC and the price embeds only a 5.7% 10-yr owner-FCF CAGR, but room nights have halved to +5% and every Connected Trip metric decelerated in Q2-26; fair value is $225 unless room nights reaccelerate above 6% by Q1-2027
How we value it
We value Booking Holdings using 10-yr DCF on owner FCF (FCF less SBC), WACC 10.0%, g 2.5%; peer EV/EBITDA cross-check. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Booking Holdings report
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