Independent equity research
Is Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
€86.00
To fair value
+37%
By · report dated 2026-09-03 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
After deducting Financial Services at 0.8x its EUR 16.8bn book and EUR 7.3bn of industrial surplus cash, the market prices BMW's car and motorcycle business at EUR 15.6bn, 4.1x our normalised after-tax earnings; we expect the Automotive EBIT margin to recover from a guided 1-3% in 2026 to 4.6% by 2028
How we value it
We value Bayerische Motoren Werke AG using SOTP: industrial NOPAT x8.0, plus external net cash, plus Financial Services at 0.8x book. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Bayerische Motoren Werke AG report
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