Independent equity research
Is BNP Paribas SA (BNP) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
BNP Paribas SA — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
€134.00
To fair value
+29%
By · report dated 2026-08-22 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At 1.06x forward tangible book BNP is priced for a 10.7% sustainable ROTE - below the 11.3% it earned in 2025 - while CET1 hit the 13% target 18 months early, payout heads to 80-90% from 2027 and 2028 ROTE is guided above 13%; the gap closes unless cost of risk breaks above 50bp
How we value it
We value BNP Paribas SA using Excess-return on TNAV (COE 10.2%) + justified P/TNAV cross-check. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full BNP Paribas SA report
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