Independent equity research
Is Blackstone (BX) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Blackstone — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
$148.00
To fair value
+14%
Report dated 2026-07-25 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
BUY(accumulate)/$148 (+14%) on Q2'26 (DE/sh +26%, record $1.35T AUM). Largest/best alt manager, valued on DISTRIBUTABLE EARNINGS not GAAP/EV-EBITDA. ~17.6x FY27E DE + ~4% yield; DEAR vs peers but CHEAP vs itself (10th pctile own P/DE hist, median ~25x) after -32% drawdown. DCF ~$130-141, SOTP ~$137 above spot. Carry bank $6.00/sh (4-yr high)=realization-recovery option; base-fee reaccel pushed to 2027. High beta 1.58. Medium conviction. Falsifier: BCRED outflows re-accel
How we value it
We value Blackstone using P/DE + DCF on distributable earnings + SOTP. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
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