Independent equity research
Is Citigroup (C) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Citigroup — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
$145.00
To fair value
+10%
Report dated 2026-07-20 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Great-bank turnaround working: ROTCE 8.7%->13%, Services a 31%-ROTCE crown jewel, 14-15% targets. Cheapest big bank at 1.28x book, freshly pulled back ~11%. Base +12%
How we value it
We value Citigroup using Justified 1.35x P/TBV on ~13% ROTCE + excess-return. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Citigroup report
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