Independent equity research
Is Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. (CAF) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (trim into strength)
12-mo fair value
€76.08
To fair value
−1%
By · report dated 2026-09-14 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
CAF's record EUR17.7bn backlog and 1.6x book-to-bill are already in a share that has run 52% off its low, and the 7.3% Solaris margin sits on a bus order book that shrank 9% at 0.7x book-to-bill, so the next rerating needs rail margin above 6%, not more orders
How we value it
We value Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. using 45% sum-of-the-parts on normalised segment EBIT, 55% 10-yr backlog-conversion DCF at 8.7% WACC. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.