Independent equity research
Is Celsius Holdings (CELH) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Celsius Holdings — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce)
12-mo fair value
$24.00
To fair value
−12%
By · report dated 2026-08-13 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Brand CELSIUS (47% of revenue) is shrinking and Q3 is guided flat, while the $1.76bn PepsiCo preferred that EV screens omit lifts the true multiple to 12.3x adjusted EBITDA from 9.9x; we are wrong if brand CELSIUS regains shipment growth by Q4 2026 or FY2027 gross margin reaches 51%
How we value it
We value Celsius Holdings using 10-yr DCF on owner FCF (post-SBC), 11.0% WACC, 2.5% g; PepsiCo preferred deducted. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Celsius Holdings report
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