Independent equity research
Is Cirsa Enterprises, S.A. (CIRSA) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Cirsa Enterprises, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
€21.29
To fair value
+13%
By · report dated 2026-09-20 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
CIRSA now trades as 0.668 Lottomatica shares plus €2.16 of dividends (€19.88 at market, 2% above €19.50). On our DCF of CIRSA and Lottomatica's undisturbed price the package is worth €21.29: HOLD. We turn buyers below €18.50, or if a failed deal sends the shares back toward the €13.64 pre-bid price
How we value it
We value Cirsa Enterprises, S.A. using Probability-weighted: 90% merger look-through, 10% standalone FCFF DCF (WACC 7.97%, g 2.0%, 7-yr). The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Cirsa Enterprises, S.A. report
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