Independent equity research
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Chipotle Mexican Grill — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$25.00
To fair value
−31%
By · report dated 2026-08-13 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At USD 32.62 Chipotle's 3.5% owner-FCF yield discounts a terminal operating margin near 24%, above anything a company-operated restaurant has ever earned, so the shares de-rate toward USD 25 unless restaurant-level margin recovers past 26% while comparable sales hold above 3%
How we value it
We value Chipotle Mexican Grill using 15-yr DCF on owner FCF (FCF after SBC), 70/30 blend with peer-multiple cross-check. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Chipotle Mexican Grill report
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