Independent equity research
Is Salesforce (CRM) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Salesforce — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (trim into strength)
12-mo fair value
$252.00
To fair value
+2%
By · report dated 2026-09-04 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Fundamentals are genuinely re-accelerating - CRPO +14% constant currency, Agentforce ARR USD 1.5bn - but at USD 264 the shares already discount management's FY2030 Rule-of-50 framework in full; we model FY2028 owner FCF of USD 12.8bn, and if H2 FY2027 organic revenue fails to accelerate the multiple unwinds
How we value it
We value Salesforce using Owner-FCF DCF (SBC expensed), WACC 9.21%, g 2.5%; peer fwd P/E and canonical EV/EBITDA cross-checks. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Salesforce report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.