Independent equity research
Is Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Cisco Systems, Inc. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce)
12-mo fair value
$81.00
To fair value
−28%
By · report dated 2026-08-15 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Cisco's +15% FY27 revenue guide is roughly 4-5pts price and 5.5pts hyperscale AI, leaving core volume near 5% while ARR grows 3% and inventory is up 80%; at 32x owner FCF the shares discount a 34% owner-FCF margin, and the call is wrong if product ARR reaccelerates past 10%
How we value it
We value Cisco Systems, Inc. using 10-yr DCF on owner FCF (FCF after SBC), WACC 8.8%, g 2.5%; 60/40 blend with peer-median multiples. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Cisco Systems, Inc. report
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