Independent equity research
Is Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Deutsche Boerse AG — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
€266.00
To fair value
−4%
By · report dated 2026-09-03 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
We think Deutsche Boerse's fee business is worth about 23x its own earnings but its EUR 0.82bn treasury result is a policy-rate stream worth 11x; separating them gives EUR 266 against EUR 278.90, and we are wrong if treasury holds above EUR 0.75bn to 2028 while ex-treasury EBITDA reaches EUR 3.8bn
How we value it
We value Deutsche Boerse AG using Sum-of-the-parts: fee franchise on a two-stage DDM, treasury income capitalised separately. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Deutsche Boerse AG report
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