Independent equity research
Is DHL Group (DHL) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
DHL Group — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
€49.00
To fair value
−11%
By · report dated 2026-09-03 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
DHL's recovery is real, but management itself calls about EUR 150m a quarter of the Express beat temporary, Post & Parcel Germany's price approval expires on 31 December 2026 with nothing published for 2027, and free cash flow guidance was never raised: at a 4.9% yield the price pays for a repeat we do not expect
How we value it
We value DHL Group using FCF-DCF at 9.2% cost of equity, blended with EV/EBIT sum-of-the-parts and 13.5x 2027E EPS. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full DHL Group report
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