Independent equity research
Is Expedia Group (EXPE) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Expedia Group — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
$375.00
To fair value
+34%
By · report dated 2026-08-13 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Expedia's B2B platform and structural margin reset are worth more than the ~9.8x EV/EBITDA the market still pays for an 'AI-disruption victim', and FY27 adjusted EBITDA of about $4.6bn on an unchanged multiple gets to $375; the thesis fails if Q3'26 adjusted EBITDA misses $1.51bn or B2B growth breaks 10%
How we value it
We value Expedia Group using 10-yr DCF on owner FCF (after SBC), WACC 10.6%, g 2.25%; EV/EBITDA cross-check. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Expedia Group report
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