Independent equity research
Is Experian (EXPN) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Experian — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
2,430 p
To fair value
−13%
By · report dated 2026-08-21 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Experian is a good business priced for a decade of 11%+ owner-free-cash-flow compounding: on a peer-derived 1.15 beta and a 9.6% WACC our organic DCF plus a valued M&A programme is worth 2,430p, and we are sellers unless FY27 organic growth holds above 8% with capex below 7.5% of revenue
How we value it
We value Experian using 10-yr DCF on unlevered owner FCF (post-capex, post-SBC), WACC 9.6%, g 2.5%. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Experian report
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