Independent equity research
Is Ferrovial N.V. (FER) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Ferrovial N.V. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL
12-mo fair value
€38.10
To fair value
−21%
By · report dated 2026-09-15 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Ferrovial's 17-19% revenue-per-transaction growth is a one-off vehicle re-classification management says laps out from H2 2026; strip it and a portfolio with flat-to-negative traffic at three of five US lanes, 7.56% ROIC and 46% of value in a non-controlling 407 ETR stake cannot hold 25.1x proportional EBITDA
How we value it
We value Ferrovial N.V. using Sum-of-the-parts 75% (407 ETR at its June-2025 transaction mark) / 25-year proportional FCFF DCF 25%. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Ferrovial N.V. report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.