Independent equity research
Is Fair Isaac (FICO) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Fair Isaac — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL
Fair value
$700.00
12-mo figure
To fair value
−1%
By · report dated 2026-08-13 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
FICO's FY2026 profit step-up is a one-time capture of the bureaus' mortgage-score markup rather than a repeatable lever: with volumes flat, VantageScore near its roughly 20% ceiling and the FY2027 rate card politically constrained, revenue exits FY2026 at a roughly $2.6bn run-rate that does not support $1,044
How we value it
We value Fair Isaac using 9-yr FCFE DCF on owner earnings, Ke 12.2%, g 3.0%, scenario-weighted. The fair value (a 12-month figure under the method then in force) is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Fair Isaac report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.