Independent equity research
Is Five Below (FIVE) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Five Below — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (reduce into strength)
Fair value
$214.00
12-mo figure
To fair value
−7%
By · report dated 2026-09-04 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Five Below's flywheel is real - comp +14%, units +9%, full-year guidance raised 26% in two quarters - but at USD 240 the shares already discount it: our 25/50/25-weighted DCF values them at USD 214, and unless FY2027 comps hold above 7% rather than the 5% we model, the multiple cannot expand
How we value it
We value Five Below using Probability-weighted FCF DCF at 10.12% WACC, 3.0% terminal g; forward P/E cross-check. The fair value (a 12-month figure under the method then in force) is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Five Below report
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