Independent equity research
Is Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Flutter Entertainment — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
$106.11
To fair value
+6%
By · report dated 2026-09-05 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At 10.7x FY2026E adjusted EBITDA Flutter already discounts a 27.6% cut to US guidance and a decade of sub-WACC returns; we are wrong if FY2027 US adjusted EBITDA is guided above $1.3bn in February, and too generous if group leverage is still above 4.0x at the FY2026 print
How we value it
We value Flutter Entertainment using Fixed-point FCFF DCF, bear/base/bull 30/50/20 at 9.53% WACC (65%); 10.0x FY2027E adjusted EBITDA (35%). The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Flutter Entertainment report
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