Independent equity research
Is General Dynamics (GD) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
General Dynamics — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$345.00
To fair value
−3%
By · report dated 2026-08-19 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
GD's record $136.5bn backlog is real but fully paid for: at 24x trailing earnings and 17x EV/EBITDA the price sits 15% above our $345 owner-FCF value. We are wrong if Marine Systems margin clears 9% before FY2028 or Gulfstream holds book-to-bill above 1.3x through the G280-to-G300 gap
How we value it
We value General Dynamics using 10-yr DCF on owner FCF (FCF after SBC), WACC 8.2%, g 2.25%; cross-checked on FY27E P/E and FY28E EV/EBITDA. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full General Dynamics report
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