Independent equity research
Is Alphabet (GOOGL) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Alphabet — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
$345.00
To fair value
+8%
Report dated 2026-07-25 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
HOLD/$345 (+8%) on Q2'26 (rev +24%, Cloud +82% at 35.6% margin). GAAP EPS inflated ~$136bn by unrealized equity gains -> normalized. Fairly valued: owner-earnings DCF ~$300, SOTP ~$325, own P/E 83rd pctile all cluster at ~$320; cheap only vs slower mega-cap peers on PEG ~1.0. FCF gone to ~$200bn/yr AI capex (ROI unproven), buybacks paused + first-ever equity raise. Accumulate <$300 or on capex-ROI proof. Street ~$423
How we value it
We value Alphabet using P/E (normalized) + owner-earnings DCF + SOTP. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Alphabet report
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