Independent equity research
Is Home Depot (HD) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Home Depot — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce)
12-mo fair value
$245.00
To fair value
−21%
By · report dated 2026-08-19 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
HD's $344 price embeds ~8.6% owner-FCF growth for a decade (a 2.6% implied equity risk premium) while comps run ~1.5% and ROIC has fallen from 31% to 25% on $25bn of margin-dilutive distribution M&A; we are wrong if FY27 comps exceed 3% and SRS/GMS operating margin clears 10%
How we value it
We value Home Depot using 10-yr DCF on unlevered owner FCF (after SBC), cross-checked on justified fwd P/E. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Home Depot report
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