Independent equity research
Is Indra Sistemas, S.A. (IDR) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Indra Sistemas, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
€61.42
To fair value
+1%
By · report dated 2026-09-19 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At EUR 61.80 Indra prices our central case, 18.4x our 2027E EPS of EUR 3.36 once the EUR 1.66bn PEM advance is treated as debt; we turn buyers if 2027 EBIT tracks above EUR 950m with comparable FCF above EUR 500m, and sellers if a stalled PEM round or TESS drag keeps Defence EBIT margin below 15%
How we value it
We value Indra Sistemas, S.A. using 50/50 FCFF DCF (WACC 8.74%, g 2.5%) and 2027E EV/EBITDA sum-of-the-parts. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Indra Sistemas, S.A. report
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