Independent equity research
Is ING Groep N.V. (ING) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
ING Groep N.V. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
€33.86
To fair value
+6%
By · report dated 2026-09-02 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
The market is capitalising a 2027 peak: management itself says the deposit margin driving the upgrade cycle reverts after 2028, and the buyback that carried earnings per share through 2023-25 now shrinks tangible book at 1.85x; we are wrong if the liability margin holds above 105bp through 2029
How we value it
We value ING Groep N.V. using Excess return on tangible common equity to 2030, with justified P/TBV and distribution cross-checks. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full ING Groep N.V. report
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