Independent equity research
Is Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. (ISP) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (trim into strength)
12-mo fair value
€6.20
To fair value
−9%
By · report dated 2026-09-02 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Intesa earns 22-25% ROTE at 2.56x ordinary tangible book, so the quality is already priced, and the MPS offer adds roughly nothing once Unipol proceeds are netted; we are wrong if ROTE holds above 24%, or if Italy's country premium is really 40bp not 175bp, either of which makes EUR 7 the floor
How we value it
We value Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. using Excess-return on ROTE vs 11.0% cost of equity, justified P/TBV, DDM, ROTE-adjusted peer set; deal valued separately. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. report
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