Independent equity research
Is Lumentum (LITE) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Lumentum — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (trim into strength)
12-mo fair value
$725.00
To fair value
−22%
By · report dated 2026-08-12 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At $932 on the ~102m diluted shares management guides — not the 78m the headline market cap implies — Lumentum trades at ~30x our FY28E EPS of $31.30 against a 10-year owner-FCF DCF worth ~$425; we trim into strength unless FY28E EPS proves out above $38
How we value it
We value Lumentum using 23x FY28E EPS of $31.30, primary; 10-yr owner-FCF DCF as cross-check. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Lumentum report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.