Independent equity research
Is Eli Lilly (LLY) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Eli Lilly — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
$1,290.00
To fair value
+8%
Report dated 2026-07-05 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Elite compounder (30%+ ROIC, ~25% EPS CAGR) already re-rated +94% off its Aug-2025 low to fair value; superb company, unexciting entry. The 8.8%-WACC DCF is ~$860 (−29% vs spot), disciplining the target
How we value it
We value Eli Lilly using Fwd P/E (~29x 2027E) + FCF/DCF cross-check. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Eli Lilly report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus 38 other names. One subscription, cancel anytime.