Independent equity research
Is Eli Lilly (LLY) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Eli Lilly — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (trim into strength)
12-mo fair value
$1,035.00
To fair value
−13%
By · report dated 2026-08-05 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Lilly's $1,170 price already discounts ~17% annual FCF growth through 2035 at a realistic 8.3% cost of capital, so the shares de-rate toward ~22x normalized 2027 EPS (~$1,035) unless 2027 revenue guidance lands above ~$105bn and US underlying net price erosion improves from -9% toward flat
How we value it
We value Eli Lilly using 22x normalized 2027E EPS of $47 (non-GAAP less a $2.00/sh recurring acquired-IPR&D charge), cross-checked against a 9-year FCF/DCF at a fundamental-beta WACC of 8.3% ($780–1,032 across five FCF paths) and a reverse DCF.. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Eli Lilly report
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