Independent equity research
Is Mader Group (MAD) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Mader Group — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
A$6.65
To fair value
+10%
By · report dated 2026-08-26 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
At A$6.42 the market already pays for Mader's 27% ROIC: our DCF on management's own FY27 guidance lands within 1% of spot. The call is wrong if FY27 delivers an EBITDA margin above 12.4% on revenue above A$1.15bn - that combination is worth more than A$7.50 and would make this a buy
How we value it
We value Mader Group using 10-yr owner-FCF DCF, WACC 10.4%, g 3.0% (50%) + FY27E EV/EBITDA and fwd P/E vs 6 peers (50%). The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Mader Group report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.