Independent equity research
Is Marriott International (MAR) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Marriott International — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$342.00
To fair value
+2%
By · report dated 2026-08-14 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Marriott's fee engine still compounds at low double digits, but at 30x 2026E adjusted EPS the price already requires perpetual ~6% free-cash growth with no cycle, and the owner-economics concessions now landing in owned, leased and other are the first evidence the fee rate itself, not just RevPAR, is negotiable
How we value it
We value Marriott International using 2027E adjusted EPS x justified P/E, cross-checked on EV / adjusted EBITDA. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Marriott International report
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