Independent equity research
Is Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Mercedes-Benz Group AG — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
BUY (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
€67.73
To fair value
+45%
By · report dated 2026-09-03 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Mercedes trades at a negative implied enterprise value for Cars and Vans once its EUR 30.4bn of net industrial liquidity, its EUR 12.6bn captive-bank equity and its residual Daimler Truck stake are stripped out, and we expect that gap to close as the 2027 product cycle lifts Cars return on sales back above 5 per cent
How we value it
We value Mercedes-Benz Group AG using Sum of the parts: industrial EBIT multiple, haircut net industrial liquidity, captive at book. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Mercedes-Benz Group AG report
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