Independent equity research
Is McDonald's (MCD) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
McDonald's — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
$248.00
To fair value
−2%
By · report dated 2026-08-14 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
McDonald's is a superb franchise priced as a bond proxy: at $273.58 the market implies a 6.3% cost of capital, yet US comps ran +0.8% in Q2 and turned negative in July and incremental ROIC since FY2023 is 7.0%; fair value $248; a positive Q3 US comparable-sales print is the upgrade trigger
How we value it
We value McDonald's using 10-yr FCFF DCF (60%) + 20x FY2027E EPS (40%); WACC 6.9%, g 2.25%. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full McDonald's report
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