Independent equity research
Is Melia Hotels International, S.A. (MEL) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Melia Hotels International, S.A. — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD (accumulate)
12-mo fair value
€11.32
To fair value
+16%
By · report dated 2026-09-14 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Melia’s EUR 79.4m Cuba write-off is non-cash and strips 1.08pp from its blended equity risk premium, but H1-26 EBITDA rose just 1.5% on 5.6% underlying RevPAR because variable-lease drag ate the rate gain, so the shares are worth EUR 11.32 and re-rate only if the guided 200bp margin expansion lands in H2-26
How we value it
We value Melia Hotels International, S.A. using Sum-of-the-parts: NAV on 12,529 owned rooms plus 13x fee EBITDA, cross-checked by ex-IFRS-16 FCFF DCF at 7.75% WACC. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Melia Hotels International, S.A. report
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