Independent equity research
Is Monster Beverage (MNST) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Monster Beverage — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
SELL (reduce into strength)
12-mo fair value
$33.00
To fair value
−24%
By · report dated 2026-08-13 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Monster's FX-neutral growth has slid from 22.1% in Q1 to 17.9% in Q2 to ~13.5% in July while distribution and selling costs rose 80bp and 130bp of sales, so 42x earnings and a 2.2% owner-FCF yield price a bull case the business is fading away from; falsified if FX-neutral growth holds above 15% through Q4 2026
How we value it
We value Monster Beverage using 50/50 blend: prob-weighted 10-yr owner-FCF DCF at WACC 8.9%, g 2.5%, and 21x FY27E EV/EBITDA. The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalized EPS
- Returns on capital (ROIC vs WACC)
- Balance-sheet safety
- Two independent valuations (DCF + multiples)
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Monster Beverage report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus other names across the coverage. One subscription, cancel anytime.