Independent equity research
Is Morgan Stanley (MS) a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Morgan Stanley — our independent, AI-built valuation and rating, in brief.
HOLD
12-mo fair value
$208.00
To fair value
−3%
Report dated 2026-07-26 · fair value derived independently of the market price.
The thesis, in brief
Superb franchise, full price: ~4.0x TBV / ~16.8x fwd EPS (97th pctile) prices peak ~27% ROTCE. Accumulate mid-$180s
How we value it
We value Morgan Stanley using Blended justified P/E on normalized EPS (+ excess-return/P-TBV cross-check). The 12-month fair value is set from that intrinsic estimate first, then compared to the market to read the upside or downside — never anchored to the current price.
What the full report covers
- Business & moat + industry cycle
- Earnings quality & normalization
- ROTCE vs cost of equity
- Balance-sheet safety & capital (CET1)
- P/TBV + excess-return / residual-income
- Bear / base / bull fair values
- Earnings-call analysis
- Insider activity & positioning
- Technicals (RSI / ADX)
- A falsifiable thesis
Read the full Morgan Stanley report
The complete model, the scenarios, and every number behind the call — plus 38 other names. One subscription, cancel anytime.